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Planning, Doing and Expecting
By George Pitagorsky
 For several months I have had this quote attributed to Einstein on my email signature.
"Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
I thought it a good reminder that our chronic problems are often caused by repetitive behavior. Everything is caused by something. Chronic problems are caused by repetitive behavior.
But there is a paradox.
Experts in complex systems turn the quote around:
Doing the same thing and expecting the same results is insane
Unpredictability
We live in systems. Complex systems are systems with non-linear and non-logical responses to behaviors. People systems are complex. People are relatively unpredictable.
For example the approach of a team of diagnosticians and inspectors has no effect on a machine.
But, what happens when a team comes to review the work of a group of people? We can get the Hawthorne Effect; change of behavior because people know or think they are being observed. There may be anger and fear. There may be a positive response because the people are acting rationally within a system that expects and values reviews and inspections. While it is also possible that the group will not respond at all, like the machine, it is unlikely.
People's responses depend on current conditions like their mood, their behavior, their attitudes and beliefs, and the values, laws, rules and policies they live with.
Once emotions and mental models (e.g., scripts, deep seeded beliefs, etc.) enter into the equation, there is uncertainty. The more people and their diversity the greater the uncertainty.
In complex systems we don't really know how things will turn out when we take an action.
To Do or Not To Do
Does that mean we should not take action? Of course not. What would we do if we didn't take action? Just sit there like a lump? So we take action with the understanding that the more complex our system the greater the uncertainty. We are ready to adjust and adapt.
To Plan or Not to Plan
Uncertainty has led many to think that planning is useless, "Since we really don't know what will happen anyway why waste the time and effort for planning?" The other extreme is the thinking that the plan determines the outcome - once we plan it we stay with the plan until we achieve the objective.
While I can personally relate to the just-do-it approach, I find it hard to believe that anyone can really think that there isn't need for adjusting a plan, even aborting it, to have it more accurately model reality. Plans are models of reality; not reality itself. They are useful if we don't take them too seriously. Remember, "the best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry."
There is a right balance between planning and not planning.
In a critical and chaotic situation like a fire or ship wreck, having an emergency plan is a definite benefit, as long as the plan includes an "out". The out is some statement that says:
"Don't continue following this plan if it is not working or if conditions are different from the conditions assumed by the planners.
Under these circumstances, you're on your own. Good luck.
P.S. when you get a moment, make a new plan."
Some planning is very useful. It gives us the ability to identify probable outcomes and the most likely best practices to achieve or goals.
We manage risk and uncertainty by planning and continuously monitoring and controlling as we move forward. At the outdoor wedding, will there be rain? What will we do if there is? When will the decision to shift to plan B be made? Who will make it? Based on what criteria? What are the potential fall outs?
How realistic are you about your plans and expectations?
How are you planning for the unknowns? How are you adapting your plans as conditions change?
© 2009 Pitagorsky Consulting
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